Conference Abstract | Volume 8, Abstract ELIC2025459 (Poster 054) | Published: 01 Aug 2025
Emmanuel Afolabi Bakare1,2, Deborah Oluwatobi Daniel1,&, Samuel Abidemi Osikoya1,2, Sodiq Ademola Orogun1,2, Happiness Oluwatosin Ismail1,3, Joshua Precious Ojo1,2, Steven Ifeanyi Ikediashi1, Dolapo Ayomide Bakare1
1International Centre for Applied Mathematical Modelling and Data Analytics (ICAMMDA), Federal University of Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria, 2Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria, 3Department of Animal and Environmental Biology, Federal University Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria
&Corresponding author: Deborah Oluwatobi Daniel, International Centre for Applied Mathematical Modelling and Data Analytics (ICAMMDA), Federal University of Oye-Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria, Email: oludeboradaniel@gmail.com
Received: 13 May 2025, Accepted: 09 Jul 2025, Published: 01 Aug 2025
Domain: Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Keywords: Lassa Fever, Nigeria, Transmission, Ribavirin, Modelling, Interventions, Outbreak Preparedness
©Emmanuel Afolabi Bakare et al. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health (ISSN: 2664-2824). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Cite this article: Emmanuel Afolabi Bakare et al., Modelling the effect of ribavirin on Lassa fever transmission dynamics in Nigeria. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health. 2025;8(ConfProc5):00198. https://doi.org/10.37432/JIEPH-CONFPRO5-00198
Lassa fever is a viral hemorrhagic illness endemic to West Africa, with Nigeria reporting frequent outbreaks. The disease is transmitted via multiple routes, including human-to-human, rodent-to-human, and environmental exposure. Existing interventions face limitations due to delayed detection, weak health systems, and insufficient modeling of the disease’s complex transmission pathways. This study aims to evaluate the role of ribavirin through a predictive epidemiological model to inform data-driven response strategies.
A deterministic compartmental model was constructed to simulate transmission among humans, rodents, and the environment. The model includes compartments for susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered individuals, and integrates human-to-human, human-to-rodent, and environmental interactions. Parameters were estimated using least-squares fitting against Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) Lassa fever case data. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to project future outbreaks and quantify the impact of ribavirin. The model showed a good fit to NCDC-reported incidence data, capturing the observed trend in reported cases.
Simulations suggest that ribavirin alone has moderate impact; however, when combined with optimized control measures such as early case detection and reduced human-rodent contact, a significant decline in total infections was observed. The integrated approach led to faster epidemic decline and reduced peak infection levels.
The study demonstrates that ribavirin, when used alongside broader interventions, can effectively reduce the transmission and burden of Lassa fever. These findings support incorporating predictive modeling into Nigeria’s early warning systems and treatment protocols. Policymakers should prioritize integrated interventions for more robust outbreak preparedness and control.
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