Conference Abstract | Volume 8, Abstract ELIC2025431 (Oral 132) | Published: 15 Aug 2025
Thierno Balde1, John Bayougar2, Benjamin Curtis3, Assietou Diouf4, Muktar Gadanya5, Gabriela Gomez6,&, Yilchini Ishaku7, Sana Johnson6, Mory Keita8, Virgil Kouassi Lokossou9, Shelly Malhotra10, Esther Mungai11, Hassan Muntari12, Precious Nwiko13, Oyeronke Oyebanji14, Katrin Ramsauer14, Sharvani Saraf14, Kpatcha Tchamda9, Goodness Tennyson15, Ifeoma Uduji16, Winifred Ukponu17, Aishat Bukola Usman9, Agnes Yadouleton18
1Zéro Pauvre en Afrique, Conakry, Guinea, 2Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 3Oxford University, Oxford, UK, 4Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal, 5Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria, 6IAVI, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 7UNICEF, Abuja, Nigeria, 8WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, Republic of Congo, 9West African Health Organization (WAHO) Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, 10IAVI, New York, USA, 11IAVI, Nairobi, Kenya, 12Nigeria CDC, Abuja, Nigeria, 13Independent Consultant, Abuja, Nigeria, 14CEPI, London, UK, 15Women Advocates for Vaccine Access, Abuja, Nigeria, 16Bloom Public Health, Abuja, Nigeria, 17Georgetown Global Health Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria, 18Sierra Leone National Public Health Agency (SLPHA), Freetown, Sierra Leone
&Corresponding author: Gabriela Gomez, IAVI, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Email: GGomez@iavi.org
Received: 05 May 2025, Accepted: 09 Jul 2025, Published: 15 Aug 2025
Domain: Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Keywords: Demand forecast, vaccine implementation, supply, financing
©Thierno Balde et al. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health (ISSN: 2664-2824). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Cite this article: Thierno Balde et al. A forecasting approach to navigate uncertainty in Lassa fever vaccine demand and guide supply planning. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health. 2025;8(ConfProc5):00132. https://doi.org/10.37432/jieph-confpro5-00132
Lassa fever remains a significant public health threat in West Africa. While vaccine candidates are advancing through the pipeline, efforts in planning timely and sufficient supply have been constrained by limited understanding of demand. This challenge is compounded by the shifting global financing landscape and unclear country-level investment capacity in the vaccine product and the implementation activities required to achieve appropriate coverage.
A demand forecast model for a Lassa fever vaccine was developed. The model includes five implementation scenarios across endemic and non-endemic at-risk countries, accounting for diverse use cases such as integration into routine immunization, targeted geographic campaigns, occupational group campaigns, and reactive use through stockpiles. Key inputs included vaccine characteristics, coverage rates, market entry timing, and policy timelines. Assumptions were developed through literature review and will be refined via workshops and consultations with global, regional, and country experts.
Forecasts present a heterogenous vaccine demand picture between 2031 and 2036, driven primarily by differences in countries’ ability to invest. In more conservative scenarios, vaccine demand is initially limited to high-burden regions with gradual scale-up over time, focusing on high-risk groups. Demand is further influenced by product characteristics, such as well as ultra-cold chain capacity.
The initial analysis reveals that demand is not solely a function of disease burden but is highly sensitive to country-level prioritization, funding availability, the strategic choices countries make around vaccine introduction. Understanding and anticipating Lassa fever vaccine demand is critical for guiding investment in manufacturing for product developers, in delivery systems for countries, and in policy advocacy for community groups. Demand forecasts must remain flexible, incorporating real-time inputs from country stakeholders and evolving financing landscapes. The ability and prioritisation of countries to invest in both vaccine procurement and implementation strategies will be the primary determinant of demand.
Menu