Conference Abstract | Volume 8, Abstract ELIC2025337 (Poster 073) | Published: 01 Aug 2025
Oladayo David Awoyale1,2,&, Simiat Titilola Adeogun2, Nwadiuto Chidinma Ojielo3, Gbenga Aduagbemi Adegbite4, Obi Emenike Charles4, Patrick Agbo5, Magbagbeola Dairo2, Olufunmilayo Fawole2
1Sydani Group, Abuja, Nigeria, 2University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, 3University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Enugu, Nigeria, 4Corona Management Systems, Abuja, Nigeria, 5Federal University of Health Sciences, Otukpo, Benue State, Nigeria
&Corresponding author: Oladayo David Awoyale, Sydani Group, Abuja, Nigeria. Email: oladayoawoyale@gmail.com
Received: 19 May 2025, Accepted: 09 Jul 2025, Published: 01 Aug 2025
Domain: Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Keywords: Lassa fever, Rapid Point-Of-Care Diagnostic Tests (RPOCT), seasonality, mathematical modelling
©Oladayo David Awoyale et al. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health (ISSN: 2664-2824). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Cite this article: Oladayo David Awoyale et al., Deciphering the seasonality and trend of Lassa fever in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023 and mathematical modelling analysis of the impact of rapid point of care diagnostic tests: Rapid diagnosis, rapid response, rapid control. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health. 2025;8(ConfProc5):00217. https://doi.org/10.37432/jieph-confpro5-00217
Lassa fever is a viral hemorrhagic disease endemic in West Africa, with significant morbidity and mortality in Nigeria. Recent advances in diagnostic technologies have led to the development of Rapid Point-of-Care Diagnostic Tests (RPOCT) for Lassa fever, offering promising opportunities for early detection and prompt treatment. This study aims to investigate the trend and seasonality of Lassa fever in Nigeria and assess the potential impact of RPOCT on controlling the disease.
We obtained monthly Lassa fever surveillance data from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) for the period January 2019 to December 2023. A compartmental model, SEIR, was used to represent the population dynamics of Lassa fever transmission, and the impact of RPOCT was assessed using mathematical modeling analysis. The model was implemented in R using the deSolve package.
The disease exhibited an increasing trend over the five-year period, with a distinct seasonal pattern of outbreaks occurring primarily between November and March. The study highlighted the potential benefits of RPOCT in controlling outbreaks by facilitating prompt detection and enabling rapid response and control measures.
The study demonstrates the potential of RPOCT to reduce the transmission of Lassa fever. Based on the findings, we recommend developing seasonal response plans, enhancing laboratory capacity particularly RPOCT, supporting state-level surveillance, and increasing public awareness to improve Nigeria’s response to Lassa fever outbreaks
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