Conference Abstract | Volume 8, Abstract ELIC2025140 (Poster 059) | Published: 01 Aug 2025
Mary Ojonema Onoja-Alexander1,&, Oladayo David Awoyale2, Morenike Oluwaseun Koyejo3, Ayokunmi Sowade4, Ahmad Al-Mustapha5,6,7
1Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Clinical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Federal University, Lokoja, Kogi State, Nigeria, 2Sydani Group, Abuja, Nigeria, 3Kwara State Ministry of Health, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria, 4Nigeria Centre for disease control and prevention, Abuja, Nigeria, 5Department of Food Hygiene and Environmental Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Helsinki, Finland, 6Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, 7Department of Veterinary Services, Kwara State Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria
&Corresponding author: Mary Ojonema Onoja-Alexander, Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Clinical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, Federal University, Lokoja, Nigeria, Email: mary.onoja-alexander@fulokoja.edu.ng
Received: 31 May 2025, Accepted: 09 Jun 2025, Published: 01 Aug 2025
Domain: Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Keywords: Compartmental model, SEIR, Rapid point of care diagnostic test (RDT), Lassa fever, Nigeria
©Mary Ojonema Onoja-Alexander et al. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health (ISSN: 2664-2824). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Cite this article: Mary Ojonema Onoja-Alexander et al., Mathematical modelling to forecast the optimization of rapid point-of-care diagnostic tests for Lassa fever in Nigeria. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health. 2025;8(Conf Proc5):00203. https://doi.org/10.37432/JIEPH-CONFPRO5-00203
Lassa fever (LF) is an acute viral haemorrhagic fever caused by Lassa virus. The first case of Lassa fever in Nigeria was discovered in Borno State in 1969. The seroprevalence in Nigeria is about 21%. Lassa fever can present nonspecific symptoms, so laboratory diagnosis is important. Mathematical models provide valuable insights into the dynamics of Lassa fever transmission and the impact of various interventions. The study aimed to develop a mathematical model to forecast the optimization of Rapid Point of Care Diagnostic Test (RPOCDT) tests for Lassa fever.
A cross-sectional analytical study using a novel deterministic compartmental mathematical model, Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered individuals (SEIR), slightly modified to include the outcomes of Rapid Point of Care Diagnostic Test, was used to represent the population dynamics of Lassa fever transmission in Nigeria. The novel compartmental model was parameterized using real-life and literature-driven data. The parameterized model was simulated using the R programming language, and an individual-based model was integrated to simulate test performance under various conditions.
The model simulations showed that the Susceptible Population decreases slowly, while the Exposed Population shows a sharp peak early in the dynamics, followed by a rapid decline. RDT Positive Population shows a rapid increase, peaking before declining sharply, while RDT Negative Population shows a rapid increase, then a sharp decline. The Infectious Population shows a steady increase over time. The Uninfectious Population shows an initial rapid increase before stabilizing while Recovered Population rose consistently.
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