Conference Abstract | Volume 8, Abstract ELIC2025172 (Oral 077) | Published:  18 Aug 2025

Predictive parameters for Lassa fever diagnosis in Nigeria: An empirical model

Nneka Marian Chika-Igwenyi1,&, Uche Sonny Unigwe2, Godsent Chichebem Isiguzo1, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja1, Nnennaya Anthony Ajayi1, Michael Onyebuchi Iroezindu2

1Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria, 2University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Ituku-Ozalla, Enugu, Nigeria

&Corresponding author: Nneka Marian Chika-IgwenyiAlex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, NigeriaEmailnnekaigwenyi@gmail.com

Received: 31 May 2025, Accepted: 09 Ju 2025, Published: 18 Aug 2025

Domain: Infectious Disease Epidemiology

This is part of the Proceedings of the ECOWAS 2nd Lassa fever International Conference in Abidjan, September 8 – 11, 2025

Keywords: Lassa fever, Predictive score, Diagnosis, Nigeria

©Nneka Marian Chika-Igwenyi et al. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health (ISSN: 2664-2824). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cite this article: Nneka Marian Chika-Igwenyi et al., Predictive parameters for Lassa fever diagnosis in Nigeria: An empirical model. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health. 2025;8(ConfrProc5):00077. https://doi.org/10.37432/JIEPH-CONFPRO5-00077

Introduction

Lassa fever (LF) is a major public health concern across West Africa. Diagnostic delay stems from late presentation, low clinical suspicion, and limited molecular diagnostics. Early detection is critical for timely treatment and favourable outcomes.

Methods

 This hospital based, cross sectional study at Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki (2023 2024) recruited febrile adults (≥18 years) suspected of LF. Data collection via interviewer administered questionnaires, physical exams, laboratory tests, and real time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were performed. Parameters were compared between RT-PCR positive/negative participants. Predictive variables were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. A predictive scoring system for LF diagnosis (PLF score) was developed, and sensitivity/specificity calculated (p< 0.05). 

Results

A total of 150 participants (males 76 [50.6%], females 74 [49.3%], mean age 36.6±15.3 years) were recruited. Self reported rodent exposure was the commonest epidemiologic factor (64.6%). RT PCR confirmed LF case positivity was 58.6% (88/150). LF positivity was significantly associated with rodent exposure (70.1% vs 29.8%, p=< 0.001), bush meat consumption (76.3% vs 23.7%, p=0.009), and Ebonyi State residence (53.1% vs 46.9%, p=< 0.001). LF positive participants were significantly more likely to present with fatigue, muscle pain, red eyes, haematuria, and proteinuria (All p values < 0.05). LF positivity was independently associated with rodent exposure, adjusted odd ratio (AOR)= 9.14, 95% C.I: 1.51 55.48), tinnitus (AOR=34.60, 95% C.I: 1.25 954.31), muscle pain (AOR=6.98, 95% C.I: 1.36 35.92), elevated AST (AOR=76.923, 95% C.I: 6.29 1000.00), and elevated creatinine (AOR=10.989, 95% C.I: 17.27 – 71.43). The PLF score had 95.5% sensitivity and 87.3% specificity at ≥5.5, area under the curve (AUC) 0.95, p< 0.001).

Conclusion

Rodent exposure, tinnitus, myalgia, elevated AST, and creatinine strongly predict LF. Integrating the PLF score with WHO case definitions could facilitate early detection/intervention, limit spread, and ensure a successful outcome.

 
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