Conference Abstract | Volume 9 (ConfPro8): Abstract 23 | Published: 05 Oct 2026
John Sonnyinado Duako Baffoe1,2,3,&, Charles Noora Lwanga2, George Asumah Adu2,4, Donne Kofi Ameme2, Joseph Asamoah Frimpong2, Mavis Borkai Osafo2, Delia Benewaa Bandoh2, Adolphina Addo-Lartey2, Amatus Nambagyira5, Jonathan Elikem Avunyitor2, Abdul Gafaru Mohammed2, Mavis Cecilia Coffie2, Samuel Oko Otokunor Sackey2, Moses Barima Djimatey5, Edwin Afari2, Ernest Kenu2
1Public Health Unit, Oti Regional Health Directorate, Ghana Health Service, Worawora, Ghana, 2Ghana Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme, School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana, 3Reaching The Unreached International (NGO), Kadjebi, Oti Region, Ghana, 4Eastern Regional Health Directorate, Public Health Unit, Ghana Health Service, Koforidua, Ghana. 5National Malaria Elimination Programme, Ghana Health Service, Accra, Ghana;
&Corresponding author: John Sonnyinado Duako Baffoe, Public Health Unit, Oti Regional Health Directorate, Ghana Health Service, Worawora, Ghana, Email:sonnyinado@yahoo.com, ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4021-4172
Received: 11 Mar 2026, Accepted: 29 Aug 2026, Published: 05 Oct 2026
Domain: Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Keywords: Typhoid fever surveillance, spatial epidemiology, seasonal variation, SARIMA C2 threshold ,Rainfall Ghana
©John Sonnyinado Duako Baffoe, et al. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health (ISSN: 2664-2824). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Cite this article: John Sonnyinado Duako Baffoe, et al., Spatiotemporal patterns and forecasted reported incidence of typhoid fever in Ghana’s Eastern Region, 2016–2024, with forecasts to 2029. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health. 2026;9(ConfPro8):23. https://doi.org/10.37432/JIEPH-CONFPRO8-0023
Typhoid fever remains an important public health concern in Ghana, particularly in the Eastern Region, where variation in water, sanitation and hygiene conditions may contribute to differences in reported typhoid incidence. We assessed temporal, demographic, spatial, seasonal, and forecast patterns of reported typhoid fever from 2016 to 2024 and forecast monthly reported incidence for 2025 to 2029.
We conducted a retrospective secondary analysis of typhoid fever surveillance data reported through the District Health Information Management System 2 (DHIMS2) from 2016-2024. We calculated incidence rates using population data. Temporal and seasonal patterns were assessed using time-series analyses, while spatial distribution was examined using district-level incidence rates and quintile mapping. Alert and epidemic thresholds were assessed using the C2 method with a rolling 12-month reference window. We used a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for forecasting. We obtained rainfall data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS) Version 2.0. We generated a sensitivity/exploratory series by applying the pooled laboratory-confirmed prevalence estimate of 4.14% from a Ghanaian meta-analysis to the surveillance case series.
A total of 446,553 typhoid fever cases were reported. Reported typhoid fever incidence increased from 108 to 273 reported cases per 10,000 population, a 2.5-fold increase. Adults aged 20–49 years accounted for the largest proportion of reported cases, while females represented 62.4%. However, age-specific incidence rates were highest among adults aged ≥50 years. Seasonal peaks occurred, with alert exceedances more frequent than epidemic exceedances. Spatial heterogeneity was observed, with Birim Central recording the highest incidence. An exploratory one-month lagged correlation was observed between rainfall and reported typhoid fever incidence (r = 0.230, nominal p = 0.018); however, this analysis did not account for temporal autocorrelation or confounding. Forecasts indicated continued high reported incidence with seasonal fluctuations through 2029.
Reported typhoid fever incidence remained persistently high in Ghana’s Eastern Region, with higher reported incidence in later years, recurrent seasonal peaks, spatial heterogeneity, and age- and sex-related differences. To reduce the reported burden, strengthened surveillance, diagnostic confirmation, targeted hotspot interventions, and improved WASH measures are needed.
Menu