Conference Abstract | Volume 9, Abstract 056 (ConfProc7) | Published: 01 Jul 2026
Yolanta Lilanda1,2,&, Martha Malasa1, Paul Simusika3, Edward Chentulo3, Mwaka Monze3, Warren Malambo1,4, Benjamin Mubemba1,5, Dabwitso Banda1, Nyambe Sinyange1, Priscilla Gardner1, Given Moonga2
1Zambia Field Epidemiology Training Program, Zambia National Public Health Institute, Lusaka, Zambia, 2School of Public Health, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia, 3Virology Laboratory, University Teaching Hospital, Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia, 4Centre for Disease Control, Lusaka, Zambia, 5Department of Basic Sciences, School of Medicine, Copperbelt University, Ndola, Zambia
&Corresponding author: Yolanta Lilanda, Zambia Field Epidemiology Training Program, University of Zambia, School of Public Health, Lusaka, Zambia, Email: lilandayolanta@gmail.com
Received: 23 Aug 2025, Accepted: 28 Oct 2025, Published: 01 Jul 2026
Domain: Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Keywords: climatic factors, Influenza, prevalence, surveillance, under-five
©Yolanta Lilanda et al. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health (ISSN: 2664-2824). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution International 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Cite this article: Yolanta Lilanda et al. Prevalence, trend and climatic associations of influenza in under-five children in Zambia, 2024. Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health. 2026;9(ConfProc7):056. https://doi.org/10.37432/JIEPH-CONFPRO7-0056
Worldwide, influenza causes about 3-5 million cases of severe respiratory illnesses and 650000 deaths in children every year. In Zambia, transmission peaks during the dry cool season (May–August). Understanding prevalence, trends, and climatic influences can guide prevention strategies. The study set out to determine the prevalence, seasonal trend, and climatic associations of influenza in under five over a 11-year period.
We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study (2014–2024) using data from 14 Severe acute respiratory illness / Influenza like illness (SARI/ILI) sentinel surveillance sites across Zambia. Children under-five years with laboratory-confirmed influenza were included. Surveillance data were linked with climatic variables (temperature, rainfall, humidity) collected by the Zambia Meteorology Department and NASA POWER. Descriptive analyses summarized Influenza prevalence and subtype distribution; autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Poisson models assessed time-series patterns and associations of influenza incidence to climatic variables respectively.
Among 12,296 under-five SARI/ILI cases, 1,212 (9.8%) tested positive for influenza. Prevalence peaked in 2019 (14.6%) and was lowest in 2020 (0.7%) during the COVID-19 pandemic; no significant linear trend was observed (p=0.142). Influenza A (63.5%, mainly H3N2) predominated over Influenza B (36.5%). Distinct seasonal patterns were noted, with peaks in the dry-cool season. Influenza activity was found to be moderately persistent from month-month (p = 0.009) and seasonal (p < 0.001). The ARIMA forecasted continue Influenza seasonal pattern until 2026. Higher average monthly temperature and higher humidity reduced influenza incidence by 7% (IRR= 0.922, p < 0.001) and 2% (IRR = 0.98, p < 0.001), respectively. Rainfall effects were not significant.
The prevalence of Influenza in under -five was 9.8% with the dry-cool season being the peak season. Average monthly temperatures and humidity were negatively associated with Influenza cases. Strengthened surveillance and preparedness during the dry-cool months are essential for prevention and control.
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